> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Saturday 13 Jun, 01:00 UTC
United States vs Paraguay
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 80% probability because both teams project nearly identical attacking threat (1.15 vs 1.25 xG), making a low-scoring stalemate unlikely in open World Cup play.
Win probability
30.6% home34.1% draw35.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
United StatesstepParaguay
1.06Base xG · rolling 26-match1.29
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.15Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.25
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
11
7
3
1
1
10
13
8
3
1
2
6
7
5
2
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
United States 4–1 Paraguay
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+