United States 4–1 ParaguayMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 13 June 2026

4–1

United States win

> Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had United States at 31%, draw at 34%, Paraguay at 35%. Against expectation, the match finished 4-1. The model's headline call was Paraguay to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

States win

31%

Actual ✓

Draw

34%

Paraguay win

35%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.15 – 1.25

Total 2.39

Actual

4 – 1

Total 5 (+2.6 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 2.6 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed

Banker

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 80%

✓ Won

Value

Over 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 52%

✓ Won

Dark Horse

Draw

Pre-match: 24%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 80% probability because both teams project nearly identical attacking threat (1.15 vs 1.25 xG), making a low-scoring stalemate unlikely in open World Cup play."

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