> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Thursday 14 May, 17:00 UTC
Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Valencia's superior xG (1.41 vs 1.24) with draw probability at 32% makes X2 the banker play at 77%, offering safer value than tight win odds.
Win probability
37.8% home32.1% draw30.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
ValenciastepRayo Vallecano
1.30Base xG · rolling 26-match1.28
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.41Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.24
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 7.5 SOT + X2 + Over 1.5 Goals + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 35.6% · @ 2.81x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
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Valencia 1–1 Rayo Vallecano
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+