FT · Spain: La Liga · Thursday, 14 May 2026
Valencia 1–1 Rayo VallecanoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 14 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Valencia at 38%, draw at 32%, Rayo Vallecano at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Valencia to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Valencia win
38%
Draw
32%
Actual ✓
Vallecano win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.41 – 1.24
Total 2.64
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 55%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.81x
- Over 7.5 SOT✗
- X2✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✗
> What we said pre-match
"Valencia's superior xG (1.41 vs 1.24) with draw probability at 32% makes X2 the banker play at 77%, offering safer value than tight win odds."