> MATCH.PREDICT()·Portugal: Primeira Liga·Monday 11 May, 19:15 UTC
Vitória de Guimaraes vs Casa Pia
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Vitória's significant xG advantage (1.92-1.30) and 76% Over 1.5 Goals probability make the total the most reliable play despite competitive win odds.
Win probability
49.1% home27.2% draw23.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Vitória de GuimaraesstepCasa Pia
1.78Base xG · rolling 26-match1.35
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.92Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.30
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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0
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1
1
8
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3
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1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Vitória de Guimaraes 0–1 Casa Pia
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+