FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Monday, 11 May 2026
Vitória de Guimaraes 0–1 Casa PiaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 11 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Vitória de Guimaraes at 49%, draw at 27%, Casa Pia at 24%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Vitória de Guimaraes to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Guimaraes win
49%
Draw
27%
Pia win
24%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.92 – 1.30
Total 3.22
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.2 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.2 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✗ Lost
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.38x
- Over 1.5 Goals✗
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- 1X✗
> What we said pre-match
"Vitória's significant xG advantage (1.92-1.30) and 76% Over 1.5 Goals probability make the total the most reliable play despite competitive win odds."