> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Tuesday 02 Jun, 18:45 UTC
Wales vs Ghana
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
X2 sits at 78% because Wales' narrow 1.31 xG edge over Ghana's 1.28 barely justifies a home favourite, leaving draw-or-away as the likeliest outcome.
Win probability
34.5% home32.6% draw32.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
WalesstepGhana
1.28Base xG · rolling 26-match1.30
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.31Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.28
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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10
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
2 picksProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Wales 1–1 Ghana
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+