Bawler / Wales vs Ghana / Recap
FT · World: International Friendly · Tuesday, 02 June 2026

Wales 1–1 GhanaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 02 June 2026

Wales
1–1
Draw
Ghana
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Wales at 35%, draw at 33%, Ghana at 33%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Wales to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Wales win
35%
Draw
33%
Actual ✓
Ghana win
33%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.31 – 1.28
Total 2.59
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Value
1X
Pre-match: 49%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"X2 sits at 78% because Wales' narrow 1.31 xG edge over Ghana's 1.28 barely justifies a home favourite, leaving draw-or-away as the likeliest outcome."

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