> MATCH.PREDICT()·ENGLAND: Championship·Saturday 02 May, 11:30 UTC
Watford vs Coventry
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
22.8% home28.1% draw49.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
WatfordstepCoventry
0.97Base xG · rolling 26-match1.72
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.05Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.66
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
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5
6
0
7
11
9
5
2
1
1
7
12
10
5
2
1
2
4
6
5
3
1
3
1
2
2
1
4
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
X2 + Over 7.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 21.1% · @ 4.73x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Watford 0–4 Coventry
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+