FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 02 May 2026
Watford 0–4 CoventryMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 02 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Watford at 23%, draw at 28%, Coventry at 49%. The match ended 0-4 — confirming the model's lean toward Coventry.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Watford win
23%
Draw
28%
Coventry win
49%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.05 – 1.66
Total 2.71
Actual
0 – 4
Total 4 (+1.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Home Win
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 4.73x
- X2✓
- Over 7.5 Corners✗
- Over 7.5 SOT✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✓