Bawler / ENGLAND: Championship / Watford
Team profile

Watford Prediction

Per-game numbers from 49 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
14.8
a game
11.7 faced
On target
4.7
a game
4.0 faced
Goals
1.2 – 1.4
scored – conceded
a game, 49 matches
Next match
22%
Watford win chance
at Wrexham · Sat 22 Aug 14:00

Watford prediction: for Watford's next match — Wrexham vs Watford on Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Wrexham are favoured (46%).

Watford sit close to the Championship average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.35 expected goals a game and conceding 1.19. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 0.67 goals a game against 1.35 expected. Next up is a trip to Wrexham, where the model has them as underdogs at 22%.

Watford in numbers

49 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.2
Goals · per game
let in 1.4
Home 1.3Away 1.0
5.2
Corners · per game
give up 5.1
Home 5.8Away 4.4
14.8
Shots · per game
faced 11.7
Home 17.2Away 12.0
4.7
On target · per game
faced 4.0
Home 5.7Away 3.5
Last 6 games
16 Aug
2-1
vs Southampton
4-8
08 Aug
1-0
vs Crawley
12-1
08 Aug
1-0
vs Crawley Town
12-1
02 May
0-4
vs Coventry
0-6
25 Apr
1-5
@ Middlesbrough
3-6
21 Apr
0-3
@ West Brom
3-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Wrexham · Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Win
22%
Watford
Draw
33%
Loss
46%
Wrexham
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Watford compare with the ENGLAND: Championship average, per match.

Goals for
1.35
Above average
Goals against
1.19
Tighter than most
Record
2W 2D 2L
6 settled
Real goals
0.7 – 1.3
For / against, per match
Scored1.35
Conceded1.19

The grey line on each bar is the ENGLAND: Championship average (1.27 scored, 1.28 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Watford fixtures (5/5).

How Bawler has done on Watford

100%
of high-confidence calls correct — 6 of 6, well above the ~65% baseline
Result100%5/5

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 6)

Sun 16 Augvs Southampton
High confidence: 1X
Sat 08 Augvs Crawley Town
High confidence: Watford or Draw
Sat 02 Mayvs Coventry
High confidence: X2
Sat 18 Aprvs Sheffield Utd
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Mon 06 Aprvs Charlton
High confidence: 1X
Sat 21 Marvs Leicester
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INFederico RavagliaGKfrom Bologna€7m
INLuca KjerrumgaardSTfrom UdineseUndisclosed
INIker BravoSTfrom UdineseUndisclosed
INMartín PayeroCMfrom UdineseUndisclosed
INJordan ZemuraLMfrom UdineseLoan
INOmar TraoréRBfrom UdineseUndisclosed
INSam WalkerGKfrom Bradford CityUndisclosed
OUTNestory IrankundaSTto Sporting CP€15m
OUTGiorgi ChakvetadzeLMto UdineseUndisclosed
OUTEgil SelvikGKto BrestLoan
OUTJeremy PetrisRBto Aris ThessalonikiUndisclosed
OUTNampalys MendyCMto MetzFree transfer
OUTNathan BaxterGKto Leyton OrientUndisclosed
OUTJorge HurtadoSTto TolimaLoan
OUTThomas InceRMto Tranmere RoversFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Watford and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly