> MATCH.PREDICT()·Germany: Bundesliga·Saturday 16 May, 13:30 UTC
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Dortmund's 41% win probability with superior xG (1.59 vs 1.31) makes X2 the banker play despite Bremen's desperate relegation motivation.
Win probability
28.8% home30.1% draw41.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Werder BremenstepBorussia Dortmund
1.21Base xG · rolling 26-match1.66
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.31Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.59
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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9
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1
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11
9
5
2
1
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1
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3
1
1
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1
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
X2 + Over 1.5 Goals + Under 10.5 Corners + Over 8.5 SOT
Model 21.9% · @ 4.56x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Werder Bremen 0–2 Borussia Dortmund
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+