FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 16 May 2026
Werder Bremen 0–2 Borussia DortmundMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 16 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Werder Bremen at 29%, draw at 30%, Borussia Dortmund at 41%. The match ended 0-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Borussia Dortmund.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Bremen win
29%
Draw
30%
Dortmund win
41%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.31 – 1.59
Total 2.91
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 55%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 4.56x
- X2✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
- Over 8.5 SOT✓
> What we said pre-match
"Dortmund's 41% win probability with superior xG (1.59 vs 1.31) makes X2 the banker play despite Bremen's desperate relegation motivation."