About Bawler
Bawler is a football prediction model that publishes its results in public. Every prediction is logged before kickoff, settled automatically from live match data, and kept on the record forever — right or wrong. The whole point is that you never have to take our word for anything: the track record is the product.
Who builds Bawler
Bawler is built by Charlie, its founder. The idea started from a simple frustration: almost every football prediction site shows off its winners and quietly buries the losers, so there is no honest way to tell whether anyone is actually any good. Charlie's answer was to build the model in public and post a live, verifiable record instead of screenshots — the same record you see on this site. Bawler is an independent project, not affiliated with any club or competition.
Why we build in public
Football prediction is full of theatre — screenshots of winners, quietly deleted losers, and "records" that can't be checked. We took the opposite approach. Bawler's accuracy, if it has any, has to be provable from data anyone can inspect. So every prediction is locked before kickoff (usually at about 5pm UK time, 2 days ahead), and since 28 May 2026 a snapshot of every published call is anchored to Bitcoin each morning, and we let the results land where they land. Our public track record shows every settled prediction and the live hit rate computed from it.
The model
At its core Bawler is a scoring model driven by each team's recent scoring and defending form, home advantage, opponent strength and lineup data, recalibrated weekly against actual outcomes. For each fixture it publishes up to three calls — most likely, close call and an outside shot. The full method is written up on the methodology page.
Our commitment
- Losing calls stay on the record alongside the winners. A call can be revised when we fix a fault in the model — 102 have been, 101 of them before kickoff — with the original kept alongside. Cancelled or postponed matches are marked void, not graded (16 so far).
- Results settle automatically — we don't hand-grade our own homework.
- Probabilities are estimates, not promises — a 70% call still misses three times in ten.
Contact & press
For press, partnerships or data questions, reach us on X at @bawlerai.