About Bawler

Bawler is a football prediction model that publishes its results in public. Every pick is logged before kickoff, settled automatically from live match data, and kept on the record forever — win or lose. The whole point is that you never have to take our word for anything: the track record is the product.

Why we build in public

Football tipping is full of theatre — screenshots of winners, quietly deleted losers, and "records" that can't be checked. We took the opposite bet. Bawler's edge, if it has one, has to be provable from data anyone can inspect. So we log every prediction with a tamper-evident hash the moment lineups drop, and we let the results land where they land. Our public track record shows every settled pick and the live hit rate computed from it.

The model

At its core Bawler is a bivariate Poisson scoring model driven by rolling expected goals (xG), recent form, home advantage, opponent strength and lineup data, recalibrated weekly against actual outcomes. For each fixture it produces four picks at different risk levels — a Banker, a Value pick, a four-leg Bawl Out accumulator, and a Dark Horse longshot. The full method is written up on the methodology page.

Our commitment

• No deletions. No edits. Every pick stays visible.
• Results settle automatically — we don't hand-grade our own homework.
• This is statistical analysis for entertainment, not betting advice. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.

Contact & press

For press, partnerships or data questions, reach us on X at @bawlerai.