> over_2.5_goals · Friday, 19 June 2026
2 fixtures on today's slate, ranked by Bawler's model probability for the Over 2.5 Goals market. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly — and cryptographically anchored to Bitcoin so we mathematically can't edit the picks after the result is in.
> today.over_2.5_goals()
Ranked by model probability. Higher = more confident.
| League | Fixture | Pick | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| World Cup | ScotlandvMorocco 23:00 | Over 2.5 Goals λ = 2.74 expected goals | 52% |
| World Cup | United StatesvAustralia 20:00 | Over 2.5 Goals λ = 2.73 expected goals | 51% |
> upcoming.over_2.5_goals()
| Date | League | Fixture | Pick | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jun | World Cup | TürkiyevParaguay 04:00 | Under 2.5 Goals λ = 2.42 expected goals | 57% |
| 20 Jun | World Cup | BrazilvHaiti 01:30 | Over 2.5 Goals λ = 2.72 expected goals | 51% |
| 21 Jun | World Cup | EcuadorvCuraçao 01:00 | Over 2.5 Goals λ = 2.69 expected goals | 51% |
> how_the_model_calls_it()
The "Over 2.5 Goals" market pays out when the combined home + away goals at full-time exceed 2.5. Bawler computes the expected goals (xG-weighted Poisson lambda) for each side, then uses a Poisson distribution to convert to a probability the total will be 2.5 or more.
Every probability above comes from the same Poisson model that powers our public track record — bivariate Poisson on rolling expected goals, FIFA-ranked international adjustment, recent form, and a small home-advantage prior. Probabilities are the model's honest estimate, not sales copy. No favourite-longshot bias compression.
Want the “why” on a specific pick? Click into the match page for the full breakdown. See the methodology page for the full mathematical write-up, or /verify for proof every prediction above was published before kickoff.
> other_markets()