data_report · updated 12 October 2026 · first published 1 July 2026
We logged 2241 football predictions before kickoff, across 43 competitions, and let live results settle them automatically. The headline: Bawler's main Most likely call landed 75.8% of the time (1699 of 2241). Just as important is whether picks land as often as the confidence Bawler gives them, which is the real test of whether a prediction means anything: in 7 of 9 confidence bands they land within 5 points of it.
2241 settled picks · 43 competitions · 18 March 2026 – 12 October 2026
Every figure here is recomputable from the public ledger at bawler.ai/track-record.
Anyone can post one lucky prediction. The harder question is whether a tool's confidence is trustworthy — when it says a pick is 75% likely, does it actually land about three times in four? We grouped every single-outcome pick by the confidence Bawler assigned it, then compared that number to how often those picks really won. In 7 of the 9 bands below — holding 5,270 of the 5,597 picks — the two figures are within 5 points of each other. The widest gap is the 10–20% band: picks given 18.9% on average actually landed 32.4% of the time (37 picks), so the model's confidence is less reliable there.
| Confidence Bawler assigned | Avg. predicted | Actually won | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 18.9% | 32.4% | 37 |
| 20–30% | 25.5% | 27.3% | 1480 |
| 30–40% | 34.8% | 37.5% | 352 |
| 40–50% | 45.4% | 43.0% | 235 |
| 50–60% | 52.8% | 53.1% | 1099 |
| 60–70% | 65.9% | 71.7% | 290 |
| 70–80% | 75.5% | 73.9% | 1385 |
| 80–90% | 83.2% | 79.7% | 681 |
| 90–100% | 92.4% | 97.4% | 38 |
Bands with fewer than 20 picks are omitted to avoid small-sample noise. "Actually won" is the share of picks in that confidence band that settled as a win.
The main “Most likely” call — the safest of the three — broken down by league, for the competitions with the most settled predictions. These are the regional cuts most useful for a specific desk.
| Competition | Accuracy | Settled picks |
|---|---|---|
| MLS | 75.7% | 228/301 |
| International friendlies | 72.5% | 158/218 |
| Championship | 73.9% | 119/161 |
| LaLiga | 77.4% | 106/137 |
| Serie A | 73.5% | 86/117 |
| Premier League | 74.8% | 83/111 |
| Eredivisie | 84.1% | 90/107 |
| Liga Portugal | 82.1% | 87/106 |
| UEFA Nations League | 69.2% | 72/104 |
Only competitions with 20 or more settled “Most likely” calls are shown. Single-league samples are smaller than the full study, so treat them as indicative.
Bawler, The 2026 Football Prediction Accuracy Report, first published 1 July 2026, updated 12 October 2026. Based on 2241 settled predictions across 43 competitions (18 March 2026–12 October 2026). Key figure: the main “Most likely” call landed 75.8% (1699/2241). Source data: bawler.ai/track-record.
Journalists and researchers are welcome to reproduce these figures. For the underlying data or a league-specific cut, the public ledger is the source of truth.