prediction_explorer

Bawler prediction explorer: accuracy by competition, confidence & market

Every Bawler pick is logged before kickoff and settled automatically from live results — no deletions, no edits. Use the filters to slice 3,159 settled predictions by competition, confidence band (High confidence / Medium confidence / Outside shot) and market, and watch the accuracy recompute live. The full findings table below is baked into the page so it reads without JavaScript.

Coverage 2026-03-182026-08-16 · 42 competitions · 176 markets

High confidence accuracy
74.1%
865/1168 settled
Medium confidence accuracy
51.2%
528/1032 settled
Outside shot accuracy
27.7%
266/959 settled
Total predictions settled
3,159
42 competitions

Accuracy by competition

Settled-prediction accuracy for each competition with at least 10 High confidence picks, most-covered first. Every figure is recomputable from the same ledger on the track record.

CompetitionHigh confidenceMedium confidenceOutside shotPredictions
All competitions74.1% (865/1168)51.2% (528/1032)27.7% (266/959)3,159
USA: MLS73.0% (119/163)52.5% (63/120)34.9% (52/149)432
World: World Cup68.3% (71/104)58.6% (34/58)28.8% (30/104)266
World: International Friendly72.8% (67/92)65.2% (60/92)26.1% (24/92)276
England: Championship79.7% (51/64)54.7% (35/64)20.9% (9/43)171
Spain: La Liga75.0% (45/60)43.3% (26/60)26.0% (13/50)170
Europe: Conference League - Qualification71.2% (42/59)54.5% (24/44)23.7% (14/59)162
Italy: Serie A64.9% (37/57)45.6% (26/57)27.7% (13/47)161
Netherlands: Eredivisie83.3% (45/54)43.5% (20/46)45.7% (21/46)146
World: Friendly International77.8% (42/54)46.3% (25/54) (0/0)108
England: Premier League72.5% (37/51)41.2% (21/51)33.3% (14/42)144
Portugal: Primeira Liga77.6% (38/49)48.9% (23/47)33.3% (13/39)135
France: Ligue 169.6% (32/46)47.8% (22/46)22.2% (8/36)128
Turkey: Süper Lig72.5% (29/40)47.5% (19/40)18.9% (7/37)117
Germany: Bundesliga88.9% (32/36)55.6% (20/36)28.6% (8/28)100
England: EFL Cup61.8% (21/34)70.4% (19/27)5.9% (2/34)95
Europe: Europa League - Qualification75.0% (18/24)58.8% (10/17)25.0% (6/24)65
Belgium: Pro League90.5% (19/21)40.0% (8/20)38.1% (8/21)62
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League85.7% (18/21)42.1% (8/19)21.4% (3/14)54
Europe: Conference League - Play Offs72.2% (13/18)50.0% (9/18)20.0% (2/10)46
Europe: Champions League - Qualification75.0% (12/16)61.5% (8/13)12.5% (2/16)45
Europe: Europa League - Play Offs81.3% (13/16)18.8% (3/16)33.3% (3/9)41
Scotland: Premiership71.4% (10/14)69.2% (9/13)62.5% (5/8)35
Europe: World Cup - Qualification - Promotion75.0% (9/12)41.7% (5/12) (0/0)24

High confidence is the free, safest pick; Medium confidence and Outside shot are the higher-variance bands. An Outside shot is expected to land less often than a High confidence call by design — read accuracy against each band's purpose, not against each other.

Filter the settled predictions

Combine competition, confidence band, market and result. The accuracy recomputes as you filter.

Hit rate for this filter
52.5%
1659/3159 settled picks
High confidence
74.1%
865/1168
Medium confidence
51.2%
528/1032
Outside shot
27.7%
266/959
DateMatchTierPickResult
16 Aug 26Watford v SouthamptonHigh confidence1XWON
16 Aug 26Watford v SouthamptonMedium confidenceOver 2.5 GoalsWON
16 Aug 26Watford v SouthamptonOutside shotDrawLOST
16 Aug 26RAAL La Louvière v KAA GentHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
16 Aug 26RAAL La Louvière v KAA GentMedium confidenceHome WinLOST
16 Aug 26RAAL La Louvière v KAA GentOutside shotAway WinWON
16 Aug 26Feyenoord Rotterdam v Go Ahead EaglesHigh confidenceHome WinLOST
16 Aug 26Feyenoord Rotterdam v Go Ahead EaglesMedium confidenceBTTS NoLOST
16 Aug 26Feyenoord Rotterdam v Go Ahead EaglesOutside shotUnder 2.5 GoalsLOST
16 Aug 26FC Twente v PEC ZwolleHigh confidenceHome WinWON
16 Aug 26FC Twente v PEC ZwolleMedium confidenceBTTS NoLOST
16 Aug 26FC Twente v PEC ZwolleOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsWON
16 Aug 26ADO Den Haag v FC GroningenHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
16 Aug 26ADO Den Haag v FC GroningenMedium confidenceOver 2.5 GoalsWON
16 Aug 26ADO Den Haag v FC GroningenOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsWON
16 Aug 26Houston Dynamo FC v LA GalaxyHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsLOST
16 Aug 26Houston Dynamo FC v LA GalaxyMedium confidenceOver 2.5 GoalsLOST
16 Aug 26Houston Dynamo FC v LA GalaxyOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
16 Aug 26Nashville SC v Inter Miami CFHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
16 Aug 26Nashville SC v Inter Miami CFOutside shotAway WinLOST
16 Aug 26Colorado Rapids v Sporting Kansas CityHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
16 Aug 26Colorado Rapids v Sporting Kansas CityOutside shotX2LOST
16 Aug 26Real Salt Lake v Minnesota United FCHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
16 Aug 26Real Salt Lake v Minnesota United FCOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
16 Aug 26LAFC v San Diego FCHigh confidenceLAFC or DrawLOST
16 Aug 26LAFC v San Diego FCOutside shotDrawLOST
16 Aug 26San Jose Earthquakes v St. Louis CITY SCHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
16 Aug 26San Jose Earthquakes v St. Louis CITY SCOutside shotAway WinWON
16 Aug 26Waasland-Beveren v AnderlechtHigh confidenceWaasland-Beveren or DrawWON
16 Aug 26Waasland-Beveren v AnderlechtMedium confidenceOver 2.5 GoalsLOST
16 Aug 26Waasland-Beveren v AnderlechtOutside shotDrawLOST
15 Aug 26Bolton Wanderers v Preston North EndHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
15 Aug 26Bolton Wanderers v Preston North EndMedium confidenceOver 2.5 GoalsWON
15 Aug 26Bolton Wanderers v Preston North EndOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
15 Aug 26Bristol City v MillwallHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
15 Aug 26Bristol City v MillwallMedium confidenceOver 2.5 GoalsLOST
15 Aug 26Bristol City v MillwallOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
15 Aug 26Charlton Athletic v Derby CountyHigh confidence1XWON
15 Aug 26Charlton Athletic v Derby CountyMedium confidenceUnder 2.5 GoalsLOST
15 Aug 26Charlton Athletic v Derby CountyOutside shotAway WinLOST
15 Aug 26Middlesbrough v Lincoln CityHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
15 Aug 26Middlesbrough v Lincoln CityMedium confidenceUnder 2.5 GoalsLOST
15 Aug 26Middlesbrough v Lincoln CityOutside shotX2LOST
15 Aug 26Norwich City v West Bromwich AlbionHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
15 Aug 26Norwich City v West Bromwich AlbionMedium confidenceBTTS NoLOST
15 Aug 26Norwich City v West Bromwich AlbionOutside shotOver 3.5 GoalsLOST
15 Aug 26Portsmouth v Queens Park RangersHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
15 Aug 26Portsmouth v Queens Park RangersMedium confidenceBTTS NoLOST
15 Aug 26Portsmouth v Queens Park RangersOutside shotX2WON
15 Aug 26Stoke City v Swansea CityHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
15 Aug 26Stoke City v Swansea CityMedium confidenceUnder 2.5 GoalsLOST
15 Aug 26Stoke City v Swansea CityOutside shotX2WON
15 Aug 26Sheffield United v Birmingham CityHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsLOST
15 Aug 26Sheffield United v Birmingham CityMedium confidenceUnder 2.5 GoalsWON
15 Aug 26Sheffield United v Birmingham CityOutside shotX2WON
15 Aug 26Alavés v GetafeHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
15 Aug 26Alavés v GetafeMedium confidenceBTTS NoWON
15 Aug 26Alavés v GetafeOutside shotX2LOST
15 Aug 26Sevilla v Rayo VallecanoHigh confidenceOver 1.5 GoalsWON
15 Aug 26Sevilla v Rayo VallecanoMedium confidenceBTTS NoLOST

Showing 60 of 3159 matching picks · every number recomputes from the same settled ledger published on the track record.

How the numbers are kept honest

  • Picks are locked when official lineups drop (~75 minutes before kickoff) and written to an append-only log with a content hash — they cannot be changed after the fact.
  • Results settle automatically from live match data. We do not hand-grade, delete losers, or backdate winners.
  • Every accuracy figure on this page is computed from the 3,159 settled predictions in the ledger — the same data published on the track record, so you can recompute any figure yourself.