Correct Score · Sunday, 16 August 2026
4 fixtures on today's slate, ranked by Bawler's model probability for the Correct Score market. Predictions are provisional until lineups are confirmed (around 75 minutes before kickoff), when each one is locked and cryptographically anchored to Bitcoin so we mathematically can't edit it after the result is in.
Today · Correct Score
Ranked by model probability. Higher = more confident. Figures are as of the latest build and stay provisional until each fixture locks at lineup confirmation.
| League | Fixture | Prediction | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | FC Famalicaov 20:30 | 1-0 1.54 expected goals home · 0.93 away | 13% |
| Primeira Liga | 20:30 | 1-0 1.63 expected goals home · 0.95 away | 12% |
| MLS | New York City FCv 23:00 | 1-1 1.62 expected goals home · 1.29 away | 11% |
| MLS | Chicago Fire FCv 23:00 | 2-1 2.01 expected goals home · 1.22 away | 10% |
Upcoming · Correct Score
These are early reads and will move as team news lands — each one is provisional until it locks at lineup confirmation.
| Date | League | Fixture | Prediction | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug | MLS | Seattle Sounders FCv 03:30 | 1-1 1.25 expected goals home · 1.59 away | 12% |
| 17 Aug | MLS | Austin FCvFC Dallas 01:30 | 1-1 1.28 expected goals home · 1.59 away | 12% |
> dated_predictions() · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Fresh correct score predictions for the next fixtures, regenerated by Bawler's model each morning and logged before kickoff. Last regenerated .
Bawler's model has 4 correct score predictions for today. The most likely is FC Famalicao v Maritimo at 13%.
Bawler's model has 2 correct score predictions for tomorrow. The most likely is Seattle Sounders FC v Vancouver Whitecaps at 12%.
Bawler's model has 4 correct score predictions for this weekend. The most likely is FC Famalicao v Maritimo at 13%.
Every prediction above is logged before kickoff and settled publicly, right or wrong — see how past predictions landed.
How the model calls it
Correct Score asks for the exact full-time scoreline. It's the hardest mainstream market to call — even the single most likely scoreline is typically only ~12-15% probable, so treat the top call as the best of a very open field. Bawler computes the joint probability of every realistic scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6 and surfaces the most likely.
Every probability above comes from the same model that powers our public track record: it estimates how many goals each side is likely to score from their recent scoring and defending form, factors in international strength and home advantage, then works out the probability of each outcome. Those probabilities are recalibrated against real results every week, so a 70% call keeps meaning 70%. Probabilities are the model's honest estimate, not sales copy.
Want the “why” on a specific call? Click into the match page for the full breakdown. See the methodology page for the full mathematical write-up, or /verify for proof every prediction above was published before kickoff.
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