Draw No Bet · Sunday, 16 August 2026
4 fixtures on today's slate, ranked by Bawler's model probability for the Draw No Bet market. Predictions are provisional until lineups are confirmed (around 75 minutes before kickoff), when each one is locked and cryptographically anchored to Bitcoin so we mathematically can't edit it after the result is in.
Today · Draw No Bet
Ranked by model probability. Higher = more confident. Figures are as of the latest build and stay provisional until each fixture locks at lineup confirmation.
| League | Fixture | Prediction | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 20:30 | Braga (Draw No Bet) | 76% |
| MLS | Chicago Fire FCv 23:00 | Chicago Fire FC (Draw No Bet) | 72% |
| Primeira Liga | FC Famalicaov 20:30 | FC Famalicao (Draw No Bet) | 70% |
| MLS | New York City FCv 23:00 | New York City FC (Draw No Bet) | 60% |
Upcoming · Draw No Bet
These are early reads and will move as team news lands — each one is provisional until it locks at lineup confirmation.
| Date | League | Fixture | Prediction | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug | LaLiga | Deportivov | Deportivo (Draw No Bet) | 76% |
| 17 Aug | Super Lig | Samsunspor (Draw No Bet) | 72% | |
| 18 Aug | Champions League - Qualification | Fenerbahce (Draw No Bet) | 70% | |
| 17 Aug | Championship | Cardiff City (Draw No Bet) | 70% | |
| 17 Aug | MLS | Seattle Sounders FCv 03:30 | Vancouver Whitecaps (Draw No Bet) | 61% |
| 17 Aug | MLS | Austin FCvFC Dallas 01:30 | FC Dallas (Draw No Bet) | 60% |
| 17 Aug | Liga Portugal | Casa Piav | Benfica (Draw No Bet) | 59% |
| 18 Aug | Champions League - Qualification | Dinamo Zagreb (Draw No Bet) | 56% | |
| 18 Aug | Champions League - Qualification | Levski Sofiav | Levski Sofia (Draw No Bet) | 56% |
> dated_predictions() · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Fresh draw no bet predictions for the next fixtures, regenerated by Bawler's model each morning and logged before kickoff. Last regenerated .
Bawler's model has 4 draw no bet predictions for today. The most likely is Braga v Gil Vicente at 76%.
Bawler's model has 6 draw no bet predictions for tomorrow. The most likely is Deportivo v Elche at 76%.
Bawler's model has 4 draw no bet predictions for this weekend. The most likely is Braga v Gil Vicente at 76%.
Every prediction above is logged before kickoff and settled publicly, right or wrong — see how past predictions landed.
How the model calls it
Draw No Bet asks which side wins once the draw is taken out of the equation — if the match ends level, it simply doesn't count. It's the cleanest way to say "this side is stronger" when a draw is genuinely plausible. Bawler computes DNB probability as P(side wins) / (P(side wins) + P(other side wins)).
Every probability above comes from the same model that powers our public track record: it estimates how many goals each side is likely to score from their recent scoring and defending form, factors in international strength and home advantage, then works out the probability of each outcome. Those probabilities are recalibrated against real results every week, so a 70% call keeps meaning 70%. Probabilities are the model's honest estimate, not sales copy.
Want the “why” on a specific call? Click into the match page for the full breakdown. See the methodology page for the full mathematical write-up, or /verify for proof every prediction above was published before kickoff.
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