Double Chance · Sunday, 16 August 2026
4 fixtures on today's slate, ranked by Bawler's model probability for the Double Chance market. Predictions are provisional until lineups are confirmed (around 75 minutes before kickoff), when each one is locked and cryptographically anchored to Bitcoin so we mathematically can't edit it after the result is in.
Today · Double Chance
Ranked by model probability. Higher = more confident. Figures are as of the latest build and stay provisional until each fixture locks at lineup confirmation.
| League | Fixture | Prediction | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 20:30 | Braga or Draw (1X) | 82% |
| Primeira Liga | FC Famalicaov 20:30 | FC Famalicao or Draw (1X) | 80% |
| MLS | Chicago Fire FCv 23:00 | Chicago Fire FC or Draw (1X) | 79% |
| MLS | New York City FCv 23:00 | New York City FC or Draw (1X) | 72% |
Upcoming · Double Chance
These are early reads and will move as team news lands — each one is provisional until it locks at lineup confirmation.
| Date | League | Fixture | Prediction | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug | LaLiga | Deportivov | Deportivo or Draw (1X) | 84% |
| 17 Aug | Super Lig | Samsunspor or Draw (1X) | 81% | |
| 18 Aug | Champions League - Qualification | Fenerbahce or Draw (1X) | 79% | |
| 17 Aug | Championship | Cardiff City or Draw (1X) | 79% | |
| 17 Aug | MLS | Seattle Sounders FCv 03:30 | Draw or Vancouver Whitecaps (X2) | 73% |
| 17 Aug | Liga Portugal | Casa Piav | Draw or Benfica (X2) | 73% |
| 18 Aug | Champions League - Qualification | Dinamo Zagreb or Viking FK (12) | 72% | |
| 18 Aug | Champions League - Qualification | Levski Sofiav | Levski Sofia or AEK Athens (12) | 72% |
| 17 Aug | MLS | Austin FCvFC Dallas 01:30 | Draw or FC Dallas (X2) | 72% |
> dated_predictions() · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Fresh double chance predictions for the next fixtures, regenerated by Bawler's model each morning and logged before kickoff. Last regenerated .
Bawler's model has 4 double chance predictions for today. The most likely is Braga v Gil Vicente at 82%.
Bawler's model has 6 double chance predictions for tomorrow. The most likely is Deportivo v Elche at 84%.
Bawler's model has 4 double chance predictions for this weekend. The most likely is Braga v Gil Vicente at 82%.
Every prediction above is logged before kickoff and settled publicly, right or wrong — see how past predictions landed.
How the model calls it
Double Chance covers two of the three 1X2 outcomes at once — a lower bar to clear, so a much higher hit rate. Bawler picks the strongest Double Chance combination per match: 1X (home or draw), X2 (draw or away), or 12 (no draw).
Every probability above comes from the same model that powers our public track record: it estimates how many goals each side is likely to score from their recent scoring and defending form, factors in international strength and home advantage, then works out the probability of each outcome. Those probabilities are recalibrated against real results every week, so a 70% call keeps meaning 70%. Probabilities are the model's honest estimate, not sales copy.
Want the “why” on a specific call? Click into the match page for the full breakdown. See the methodology page for the full mathematical write-up, or /verify for proof every prediction above was published before kickoff.
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