UEFA Champions League final · Saturday, 30 May 2026 · Settled
Before kickoff the model made Paris Saint-Germain the favourite: Paris Saint-Germain 42%, draw 30%, Arsenal 28% over 90 minutes. It finished Paris Saint-Germain 1–1 Arsenal after 90 minutes. Still level after extra time, the final went to penalties, and Paris Saint-Germain won the shootout. 3 of the model's 3 calls on the match landed.
After 90 minutes · Paris Saint-Germain won on penalties
The final got the same treatment as every other match: the model, built on recent scoring and defending form, works out the chance of every scoreline and makes its calls from that. It forecasts the 90-minute result, so a final that goes to extra time or penalties is graded on the score after 90 minutes. Read the full method.
Like everything on Bawler, the final's prediction was logged before kickoff and settled publicly on the track record.