FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Friday, 04 September 2026

Abha 0–1 Al EttifaqMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 04 September 2026

Abha
0–1
Al Ettifaq win
Al Ettifaq

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Abha or draw at 67%. Bawler had Abha at 42%, the draw at 25% and Al Ettifaq at 33%. The match finished 0–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Abha win
42%
Draw
25%
Al Ettifaq win
33%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.6 – 1.4
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 0.7
From the match itself

The match produced 2.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 81% with both sides generating 3.04 combined expected goals, enough to breach the threshold despite Abha's marginal 42% win probability edge."

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