FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 06 September 2026
ADO Den Haag 2–3 Fortuna SittardMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Fortuna Sittard or draw at 66%. Bawler had ADO Den Haag at 34%, the draw at 25% and Fortuna Sittard at 41%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
ADO Den Haag win
34%
Draw
25%
Fortuna Sittard win
41%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.6
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 82% because both sides generate similar attacking threat—ADO Den Haag 1.48 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.65 xG—in a fixture the model expects to unfold as an even contest."