FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Friday, 11 September 2026

Al Ahli 3–1 Al HazemMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 11 September 2026

Al Ahli
3–1
Al Ahli win
Al Hazem

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Ahli to win at 72%. Bawler had Al Ahli at 72%, the draw at 18% and Al Hazem at 10%. The match finished 3–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Ahli win
72%
Result
Draw
18%
Al Hazem win
10%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.3 – 0.8
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)

The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Al Ahli to win
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Al Ahli's home win forecast rests on a dominant 1.57 expected-goals advantage, reflecting their superior chance creation against a visiting side managing just 0.74 xG."

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