FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Friday, 04 September 2026

Al Ahli 5–0 Al RiyadhMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 04 September 2026

Al Ahli
5–0
Al Ahli win
Al Riyadh

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Ahli to win at 77%. Bawler had Al Ahli at 77%, the draw at 15% and Al Riyadh at 7%. The match finished 5–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Ahli win
77%
Result
Draw
15%
Al Riyadh win
7%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.6 – 0.7
Total 3.3
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.3 – 0.8
From the match itself

The match produced 1.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Al Ahli to win
Pre-match: 77%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Al Ahli's home win is the high-confidence call at 78%, built on a dominant 1.91 expected-goals advantage that suggests their attacking setup will overwhelm Al Riyadh's thin creation."

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