FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Sunday, 13 September 2026

Al Diriyah 0–0 AbhaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Diriyah or draw at 81%. Bawler had Al Diriyah at 55%, the draw at 26% and Abha at 19%. The match finished 0–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Diriyah win
55%
Draw
26%
Result
Abha win
19%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 0.9
Total 2.5
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 0.8
From the match itself

The match produced 2.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Al Diriyah or draw
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Al Diriyah's 0.79 expected-goals advantage makes Al Diriyah or draw—home win or draw—a high-confidence forecast at 81%, as Abha's attacking output of just 0.88 xG leaves little room for an away upset."

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