FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Friday, 11 September 2026

Al Faisaly 1–3 Al IttihadMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 11 September 2026

Al Faisaly
1–3
Al Ittihad win
Al Ittihad

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Ittihad or draw at 68%. Bawler had Al Faisaly at 32%, the draw at 24% and Al Ittihad at 44%. The match finished 1–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Faisaly win
32%
Draw
24%
Al Ittihad win
44%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.6 – 1.9
Total 3.4
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 1.3
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.6 of our 3.4.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 87% confidence as both sides combine for 3.56 expected goals, with Al Ittihad's slight 1.87 xG edge suggesting attacking intent despite the narrow 7-point win-probability gap."

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