FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Wednesday, 09 September 2026

Al Fateh 1–2 Al DiriyahMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 09 September 2026

Al Fateh
1–2
Al Diriyah win
Al Diriyah

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Diriyah or draw at 65%. Bawler had Al Fateh at 35%, the draw at 27% and Al Diriyah at 38%. The match finished 1–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Fateh win
35%
Draw
27%
Al Diriyah win
38%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.4 – 1.4
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 2.5
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 77% because Al Fateh (1.35 xG) and Al Diriyah (1.42 xG) are evenly matched attacking forces with a combined expected output of 2.78 goals."

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