FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Thursday, 03 September 2026

Al Fayha 2–2 Al KholoodMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 03 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Fayha or draw at 68%. Bawler had Al Fayha at 40%, the draw at 29% and Al Kholood at 32%. The match finished 2–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Fayha win
40%
Draw
29%
Result
Al Kholood win
32%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.3 – 1.2
Total 2.5
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.9
From the match itself

The match produced 1.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 24%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals dominates the forecast at 71% probability, driven by a tight expected-goals battle where Al Fayha's 1.33 xG and Al Kholood's 1.16 xG combine for 2.50 total."

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