FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Tuesday, 08 September 2026

Al Hazem 1–0 Al TaawounMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 08 September 2026

Al Hazem
1–0
Al Hazem win
Al Taawoun

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Al Taawoun or draw at 65%. Bawler had Al Hazem at 35%, the draw at 26% and Al Taawoun at 39%. The match finished 1–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Hazem win
35%
Result
Draw
26%
Al Taawoun win
39%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.4 – 1.5
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)

The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals projects as the high-confidence call at 79%, with Al Taawoun's 1.51 xG and Al Hazem's 1.41 xG combining for a combined expected output that justifies goals in this fixture."

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