FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Tuesday, 08 September 2026

Al Ittihad 2–1 Al FayhaMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 08 September 2026

Al Ittihad
2–1
Al Ittihad win
Al Fayha

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Ittihad or draw at 78%. Bawler had Al Ittihad at 53%, the draw at 25% and Al Fayha at 22%. The match finished 2–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Ittihad win
53%
Result
Draw
25%
Al Fayha win
22%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.8 – 1.1
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.5 – 0.6
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 78%, backed by Al Ittihad's 0.70 xG advantage and a combined expected-goals total of 2.86."

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