FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Saturday, 05 September 2026

Al Ittihad 2–1 Al NassrMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026

Al Ittihad
2–1
Al Ittihad win
Al Nassr

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Al Nassr to win at 60%. Bawler had Al Ittihad at 19%, the draw at 21% and Al Nassr at 60%. The match finished 2–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Ittihad win
19%
Result
Draw
21%
Al Nassr win
60%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.1 – 2.2
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 1.8
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 3.3.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 21%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 84%, driven by Al Nassr's 2.16 xG—more than double Al Ittihad's 1.15—suggesting an open, goalmouth-heavy contest."

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