FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Saturday, 12 September 2026

Al Khaleej 1–1 Al NassrMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Al Nassr to win at 62%. Bawler had Al Khaleej at 17%, the draw at 21% and Al Nassr at 62%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Khaleej win
17%
Draw
21%
Result
Al Nassr win
62%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.0 – 2.1
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 1.4
From the match itself

The match produced 1.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Al Nassr to win
Pre-match: 62%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Al Nassr's away win is the high-confidence call, built on a commanding 1.09 xG advantage and 62% win probability that reflects their superior attacking threat."

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