FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Wednesday, 09 September 2026

Al Kholood 2–1 Al ShababMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 09 September 2026

Al Kholood
2–1
Al Kholood win
Al Shabab

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Kholood or draw at 64%. Bawler had Al Kholood at 39%, the draw at 25% and Al Shabab at 36%. The match finished 2–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Kholood win
39%
Result
Draw
25%
Al Shabab win
36%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.6 – 1.5
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 0.5
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.1.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 81% because both sides generate similar attacking threat—Al Kholood 1.58 xG and Al Shabab 1.52—pointing to a goal-heavy contest despite their nearly even win probabilities."

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