FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Wednesday, 09 September 2026

Al Nassr 2–1 AbhaMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 09 September 2026

Al Nassr
2–1
Al Nassr win
Abha

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Nassr to win at 75%. Bawler had Al Nassr at 75%, the draw at 16% and Abha at 8%. The match finished 2–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Nassr win
75%
Result
Draw
16%
Abha win
8%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.5 – 0.7
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 0.3
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 3.2.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Al Nassr to win
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 39%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Al Nassr's home win is the high-confidence call, backed by a 1.75 expected-goals advantage and a 75% forecast probability over Abha's 8%."

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