FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Tuesday, 08 September 2026

Al Qadsiah 3–2 Al AhliMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 08 September 2026

Al Qadsiah
3–2
Al Qadsiah win
Al Ahli

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Qadsiah or draw at 65%. Bawler had Al Qadsiah at 39%, the draw at 26% and Al Ahli at 35%. The match finished 3–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Qadsiah win
39%
Result
Draw
26%
Al Ahli win
35%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.5 – 1.4
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.7 – 1.2
From the match itself

The match produced 2.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 79% because both sides combine for 2.92 expected goals with Al Qadsiah's narrow 1.51 xG edge creating an open, competitive fixture."

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