FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Friday, 11 September 2026

Al Qadsiah 3–3 Al EttifaqMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 11 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Al Qadsiah to win at 74%. Bawler had Al Qadsiah at 74%, the draw at 16% and Al Ettifaq at 11%. The match finished 3–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Qadsiah win
74%
Draw
16%
Result
Al Ettifaq win
11%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.8 – 1.0
Total 3.8
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 0.9
From the match itself

The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Al Qadsiah to win
Pre-match: 74%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Al Qadsiah's home advantage combines with a dominant 1.77 xG edge to make a home win the model's 74% forecast."

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