FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Amed SFK 5–0 Istanbul BasaksehirMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Amed SFK or draw at 63%. Bawler had Amed SFK at 38%, the draw at 25% and Istanbul Basaksehir at 37%. The match finished 5–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Amed SFK win
38%
Result
Draw
25%
Istanbul Basaksehir win
37%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.5
Total 3.1
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+1.9 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals forecasts at 81% because Amed and Basaksehir project near-identical attacking threat at 1.55 and 1.53 xG, creating the offensive balance needed for a multi-goal outcome."