FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Andorra 1–2 MaltaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Andorra
1–2
Malta win
Malta

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Andorra or draw at 65%. Bawler had Andorra at 40%, the draw at 26% and Malta at 35%. The match finished 1–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Andorra win
40%
Draw
26%
Malta win
35%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.5 – 1.4
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 3.2
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 80%, with both sides projected to 1.5+ xG in a fixture where Andorra's 40% win probability sits just six points clear of Malta's 34%."

More from Bawler