FT · Europe: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Ararat-Armenia 1–0 CSU CraiovaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was CSU Craiova or draw at 72%. Bawler had Ararat-Armenia at 28%, the draw at 26% and CSU Craiova at 45%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Ararat-Armenia win
28%
Result
Draw
26%
CSU Craiova win
45%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.6
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Missed
Medium confidence
CSU Craiova or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 76%, backed by Craiova's 0.38 xG advantage and combined shot creation of 2.77 expected goals that projects a low-scoring but open contest."