FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Friday, 25 September 2026

Armenia 2–0 LatviaMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 25 September 2026

Armenia
2–0
Armenia win
Latvia

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Armenia or draw at 69%. Bawler had Armenia at 46%, the draw at 24% and Latvia at 31%. The match finished 2–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Armenia win
46%
Result
Draw
24%
Latvia win
31%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.9 – 1.5
Total 3.4
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 0.2
From the match itself

The match produced 1.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Medium confidence
Armenia or draw
Pre-match: 69%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals stands at 86% confidence, with Armenia's 0.37 expected-goals advantage suggesting enough attacking intent to break through a lower-volume Latvia side."

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