FT · Spain: Copa del Rey · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Atlético Calatayud 2–0 CD BaztánMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Atlético Calatayud
2–0
Atlético Calatayud win
CD Baztán

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Atlético Calatayud or draw at 70%. Bawler had Atlético Calatayud at 45%, the draw at 26% and CD Baztán at 30%. The match finished 2–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Atlético Calatayud win
45%
Result
Draw
26%
CD Baztán win
30%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)

The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 80%, backed by Atlético Calatayud's 0.33 xG advantage and a combined expected-goals total of 2.97."

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