FT · Spain: Copa del Rey · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Auriense Cented Academy 2–0 CD San JoséMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Auriense Cented Academy
2–0
Auriense Cented Academy win
CD San José

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Auriense Cented Academy or draw at 70%. Bawler had Auriense Cented Academy at 45%, the draw at 26% and CD San José at 30%. The match finished 2–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Auriense Cented Academy win
45%
Result
Draw
26%
CD San José win
30%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)

The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 80%, backed by Auriense's 1.65 xG advantage and a combined expected-goals total of 2.97 that tilts toward an open contest."

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