FT · Europe: Champions League · Wednesday, 09 September 2026
Barcelona 5–1 Feyenoord RotterdamMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 09 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Barcelona to win at 71%. Bawler had Barcelona at 71%, the draw at 17% and Feyenoord Rotterdam at 12%. The match finished 5–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Barcelona win
71%
Result
Draw
17%
Feyenoord Rotterdam win
12%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.6 – 1.0
Total 3.6
Actual
5 – 1
Total 6 (+2.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Barcelona to win
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Barcelona's home win is the model's high-confidence call at 71%, built on a 1.59 expected-goals advantage anchored by Lewandowski and Yamal generating nearly half their team's chances against Giménez's isolated Feyenoord attack."