FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Blackpool 1–4 Lincoln CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Blackpool or draw at 69%. Bawler had Blackpool at 43%, the draw at 26% and Lincoln City at 31%. The match finished 1–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Blackpool win
43%
Draw
26%
Lincoln City win
31%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.3
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.