FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Bolton Wanderers 1–0 Cardiff CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Bolton Wanderers or draw at 68%. Bawler had Bolton Wanderers at 42%, the draw at 27% and Cardiff City at 32%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bolton Wanderers win
42%
Result
Draw
27%
Cardiff City win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.3
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Bolton Wanderers or draw
Pre-match: 68%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Bolton's home edge and marginal xG advantage (1.52 to 1.29) make the Bolton Wanderers or draw forecast—a 68% model call—the standout play in a low-scoring matchup between evenly matched sides."