FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Borac Banja Luka 3–1 Vikingur ReykjavikMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Borac Banja Luka or draw at 65%. Bawler had Borac Banja Luka at 39%, the draw at 26% and Vikingur Reykjavik at 35%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Borac Banja Luka win
39%
Result
Draw
26%
Vikingur Reykjavik win
35%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.4
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 79%, anchored by combined xG of 2.92 and a razor-thin 0.10 goal differential that projects an open, attacking fixture."