FT · Spain: Copa del Rey · Saturday, 03 October 2026

CD Tedeón 2–5 AnaitasunaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 03 October 2026

CD Tedeón
2–5
Anaitasuna win
Anaitasuna

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was CD Tedeón or draw at 72%. Bawler had CD Tedeón at 47%, the draw at 26% and Anaitasuna at 28%. The match finished 2–5.

Pre-match probability vs result

CD Tedeón win
47%
Draw
26%
Anaitasuna win
28%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 5
Total 7 (+4.1 against our forecast)

The match produced 4.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
CD Tedeón or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals emerges as the high-confidence forecast at 78%, anchored by Tedeón's 0.43 xG advantage and superior 47% win probability suggesting an attacking environment favours goals."

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