FT · Spain: Copa del Rey · Sunday, 27 September 2026

CF San Rafael 1–5 AE PratMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026

CF San Rafael
1–5
AE Prat win
AE Prat

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was CF San Rafael or draw at 70%. Bawler had CF San Rafael at 45%, the draw at 26% and AE Prat at 30%. The match finished 1–5.

Pre-match probability vs result

CF San Rafael win
45%
Draw
26%
AE Prat win
30%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 5
Total 6 (+3.0 against our forecast)

The match produced 3.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 80%, backed by San Rafael's 0.33 xG edge and a combined expected output of 2.97 that favors an open contest."

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