FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Chelsea 4–3 Brighton & Hove AlbionMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Chelsea or draw at 68%. Bawler had Chelsea at 43%, the draw at 26% and Brighton & Hove Albion at 32%. The match finished 4–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Chelsea win
43%
Result
Draw
26%
Brighton & Hove Albion win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.4
Total 3.0
Actual
4 – 3
Total 7 (+4.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.0 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 4.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.